The “Risk Factor” was something I threw in my positional rankings and we would now like to take it a step further. In Fantasy Football, your top priority in the draft is to avoid risk. Unfortunately, it seems as though certain big names players carry much more risk than others and leave fantasy owners wondering what they should be doing. Melvin Gordon has left Fantasy Football owners stressed out this off-season.
Risk Factor: 9.5/10
Melvin Gordon is one of the most talented running backs in football. Unfortunately, I do not expect to see Gordon on the field much this season. Gordon officially began his holdout last Wednesday, but we’ve been hearing about this for a while. The Chargers’ GM, Tom Telesco, does not seem to be in any hurry to get a deal done. He said the team has to focus on who is in camp, which is not a great
Should you draft Melvin Gordon?
To put it bluntly, absolutely not. Gordon was going 5th overall in drafts, but has dropped to the 9th spot given his holdout situation. A first round draft capitol is far too high to spend on a player that might not suit up in 2019. Gordon is being fined daily and was already offered a reasonable contract ($10M per year) but it would be a surprise to see Melvin on the field to open the season. His situation is up in the air and there is no realistic timetable available right now. Melvin is seeking a contract in the $13M per year range. Until the two sides are on the same page Gordon will be watching the Chargers from home.
If Gordon is not extended by the time your draft starts, he is a 4th round value at best. The first three rounds are loaded with talented players that are set to play sixteen games, barring injury. You do not want to have to stash your second or third-round pick on the bench without an idea of when he will return.
If an extension does get done, then Gordon would be a steal at 9th overall. In fact, even if his ADP climbs back to 5th I would be willing to spend that price for a healthy and active Melvin Gordon. Gordon is an elite back with the workload to get the job done each week. In 12 games last season Gordon received 225 touches (175 Carries/50 Receptions) which is an average of 18.75 touches a game. There are misconceptions that Austin Ekeler takes away from his workload but that is not the case.
The “Risk Factor” Series will be posted daily and can be found right here at WTF Sports. Scott Edwards and I will be co-writing the series that will include analysis on the riskiest picks in the game. To see Scott Edwards take on Todd Gurley click here.