The Breakout Series is our latest blog category, highlighting the players who have the best shot to outplay their ADP. The Risk Factor Series was well received, so we decided to continue with another Fantasy
Miles Sanders is going in the fifth round, and could easily finish as an RB1 (top 12 running back). Over the last seven seasons there have been an average of 2.25 rookie running backs that have finished as a top 12 back. Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, and Miles Sanders have the best odds to reach that pillar. Sanders is by far the best value – going two rounds later than his peers.
Sanders is currently listed as the second-string running back behind Jordan Howard. While the depth chart gives the nod to Howard, his usage so far in the preseason/camp says otherwise. Expect Sanders to have a solid role week one and to continue to get an increased workload as the season progresses. If Sanders successfully fazes Howard out of the offense, his talent will be enough to make him a must start on a weekly basis.
Howard will not go down easy, as a player who has had a successful three-year career in the NFL. Jordan Howard is only 24-years-old and has averaged 1,123 yards per season thus far. That said, Sanders was drafted in the second round (53rd) and should have a role carved out for him. Sanders will get a shot to beat out Howard for early down work, while getting enough touches in the meantime.
His production will be aided by the #1-ranked offensive line by Pro Football Focus (and many other experts) this season. There are not going to be many players left on the board with his potential in the fifth round or later.
Opportunity share = breakout = value. 180 FPTS in the 4th round from a rookie RB has more value than 100 FPTS 2 rounds later. And Doug Peterson.
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